Trump’s Gamble with Iran: Buffer Zones, Blockades, and Israel’s Uneasy Future
As ceasefires hold and negotiations continue, Israel faces difficult questions about Iran, deterrence, security, and the future.

On 7 March 2025, thinc. published an extensive report entitled: “The Future of the ‘Occupied Palestinian Territory’: Will Common Sense Return to the United Nations?”
This report analyses recent UN resolutions calling on Israel to unilaterally withdraw its military and civilian presence from the ‘Occupied Palestinian Territory’ (East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza Strip), and to facilitate the swift establishment of a Palestinian state on the entirety of that territory.
Resolution ES-10/24 (September 2024) demands Israel’s unconditional withdrawal from this territory within 12 months of its date of adoption.
Resolution A/79 L/23 (November 2024) calls for a high-level, international conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution, in New York in June 2025.
The purpose of this briefing is to assist UN member states in making informed and balanced policy decisions in preparation of the high-level UN conference scheduled for June.
First, the UN ignores the massive problem of internationally sponsored, extreme Islamist terrorism in the region, and specifically in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. By failing to acknowledge that Hamas’s ultimate goal is the elimination of Israel and failing to hold Hamas and its sponsors (especially Iran and Qatar) accountable for their incitement to and acts of terror, these UNGA Resolutions reinforce the cycle of violence.
Despite the fall of its key ally, Bashar al- Assad in Syria, Iran remains a major security threat, and the situation in Syria has introduced a heightened risk of regional instability and aggression against Israel. Qatar’s sponsorship of terrorism is highly problematic and should also be addressed.
““The recent provisional ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza provides only a brief respite; it does nothing to increase the long-term prospects for stability in the Gaza Strip. In fact, leaving Hamas in power significantly undermines the prospects of peace and security.””
The recent provisional ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza provides only a brief respite; it does nothing to increase the long-term prospects for stability in the Gaza Strip. In fact, leaving Hamas in power significantly undermines the prospects of peace and security.
Second, they ignore the problem of the lack of Palestinian governance in these territories. Palestinian governance in Gaza is non-existent, and in the West Bank remains a critical security risk. The Palestinian Authority (PA) continues to struggle with corruption and inefficiency and remains committed to terror. Its weakness and inaction were significant factors leading to Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October.
UNRWA has undermined peace, inter alia through its education system that teaches hatred, and its infiltration by Hamas and other hostile groups. As long as UNRWA exists, the Palestinians will be unable to achieve good governance, and any resolution of the conflict will remain unattainable.
In this context, hasty implementation of a two-state solution will present major security risks—not only for Israel, but for local, regional and global stability.
Third, these resolutions are flawed from a legal perspective. Reflecting weaknesses in judicial procedure and reasoning of the recent Advisory Opinion by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), they conflict with Israel’s rights under international law to territorial integrity and political inviolability.
In particular:
thinc. argues that UN member states should:
(a) the cessation of violence and removal of extremist and destabilising forces of the radical Islamist camp in the West Bank and Gaza;
(b) dissolution of UNRWA;
(c) the replacement of the Palestinian Authority with a stable, effective and independent Palestinian government; and
(d) recognition of Israel’s right to secure borders, its sovereignty over East Jerusalem, and its legitimate sovereignty claims to the territory of the West Bank and Gaza Strip;
The full report can be accessed on the thinc. website: www.thinc-israel.org
As ceasefires hold and negotiations continue, Israel faces difficult questions about Iran, deterrence, security, and the future.
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